White paper: Black Friday – a global phenomenon?

Written by Sarah on . Posted in White papers

mouse keyboardA seemingly endless stream of analysis and conjecture has been generated in anticipation of what is likely to be the UK’s largest ever online shopping day: Black Friday 2015.

That the event truly arrived in 2014 is undisputed with an estimated £810m spent by British consumers. Affiliate Window witnessed an incredible spike, posting revenue in excess of £31m and in the process the network accounted for about 4% of all online expenditure.

Whether Cyber Monday, traditionally the first Monday in December, ever regains its crown as the annual peak shopping day, may be determined by what happens at the end of this week. Already some commentators are expressing doubts, claiming the event an irrelevance. Asda has gone on record stating they won’t be joining in the retail bunfight, Mothercare has also joined in the criticism of the event.

Retailers undoubtedly have a difficult time squaring the obvious consumer demand with their own reluctance to erode profit margins. Not to mention the potential harm a huge Black Friday peak could have on the logistics of the rest of Christmas trading.

Black Friday has in almost of a blink of an eye disrupted the British retail lanscape. But what of our European neighbours and those countries beyond this continent?

As a part of the largest performance marketing network in Europe, we collated 2014 data from across the zanox Group in order to understand which countries embraced Black Friday, or are likely to this year. This is no mere data crunching exercise, the value of UK online exports is predicted to more than double to 2020, signalling the overseas opportunity for homegrown British retailers to take advantage of seasonal promotions.

So what did the data show? Taking around one month’s worth of sales data, incorporating all of the pre-Christmas trading peak, we estimated what an average day during this period should expect to pull in, benchmarking Black Friday against it. We also did the same for sales revenue so we could see whether average order values also spiked.

From the below data, some clear geographic patterns emerge:

GraphWe can draw broad lines around North-western Europe, namely the UK and the Nordics. All over-indexed, with both Danish and British consumers choosing to spend more on average per transaction, possibly indicative of the focus on different product categories around Black Friday.

Southern European countries also saw a spike, albeit a more muted one in general. The US unsurprisingly pulled in impressive numbers but Black Friday is still a traditionally in-store phenomenon, with Cyber Monday retaining its retail crown there.

The obvious outlier is Brazil, a high growth market for the zanox Group. Pulling in almost one in five sales across the 30 day period on Black Friday alone, the opportunity is clear to see.

Conversely some of the largest European markets including Germany, France and The Netherlands have yet to warm to Black Friday, seeing peaks occur elsewhere, including Cyber Monday.

Overall however, 2014 saw Black Friday pip Cyber Monday for most revenue driven in 24 hours for the first time and no one would bet against that gap widening this year.

For more insights from across the zanox Group you can access a comprehensive Black Friday and Cyber Monday whitepaper here.

Tags: , ,

Trackback from your site.

Leave a comment